Patriots vs Bills Game Analysis: Division Rivals
On Sunday afternoon, the New England Patriots will visit Buffalo to clash with the Bills. The game starts at 1 pm ET on October 4.
The Bills are one of five unbeaten teams left in the league going into Week 4. AFC East Division rivals, the Patriots, have only one win so far this season. Here at PayPerHead, you’ll find our Patriots vs Bills prediction and everything you need to know ahead of this game.
New England Patriots Recent Scores: Lacking Offense
The Patriots have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball so far and will have a rough time trying to subdue the Bills’ offense.
In Week 1, their defense kept the Seahawks to only 13 points, but their offense wasn’t able to generate enough points for a win.
Week 2 saw New England’s offense and defense work in perfect harmony as they beat the Steelers 20-3.
But in Week 3, the Patriots regressed to their Week 1 style of play as they were ruined by the Jaguars 35-6.
- Week 1: at Seahawks 10-13 (loss)
- Week 2: vs Steelers 20-3 (win)
- Week 3: at Jaguars 6-35 (loss)
Buffalo Bills Recent Scores: Josh Allen Records
The Bills are playing some of their best ball as their offense makes up for any shortcomings in their defense to secure wins in each week of the 2026 season so far.
Quarterback Josh Allen became the first player in NFL history with at least five touchdown passes and three touchdown runs through the first two games of the season. He also recorded his fourth career game with three touchdown passes and two touchdown runs. No other player has done that more than twice. And he became the fastest quarterback to reach 300 touchdowns in the regular season (129 games).
In Week 1, the Bills defeated the Texans on the road for the first time since 2006. It was an offensive shootout.
In Week 2, Allen had three passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns for 248 yards and no interceptions despite experiencing flu-like symptoms before the game.
Week 3 showed a less aggressive offense, but the defense was able to get them the win as Allen threw 2 interceptions.
Week 1: at Texans 36-31 (win)
Week 2: vs Lions 41-31 (win)
Week 3: vs Chargers 24-16 (win)
Patriots vs Bills History: Tom Brady Dominated
Since 1960, these teams have played 133 games against each other. New England leads the series 80-52-1, which includes two postseason games. The Patriots won the 1963 AFL Divisional Playoff Game, 26-8, while the Bills won the more recent AFC Wild Card Game 47-17 on January 15, 2022.
Tom Brady dominated the series 32-3 while with the Patriots. Since 2020, the Bills have had the edge, 9-4, winning the most recent matchup 35-31 on December 14, 2025.
Patriots vs Bills Prediction: Maye is Struggling
New England’s quarterback, Drake Maye, hasn’t thrown a touchdown since Week 1, but has thrown six interceptions. The team is scoring only 12 points per game, the fewest in the NFL, along with the winless Dolphins. They need to run the ball more to limit the turnovers.
There is speculation that Buffalo’s Josh Allen has some health issues after a physical Week 3 game against the Chargers. But the Bills are still 6.5-point favorites.
Our Patriots vs Bills prediction is another big win for the Bills, as long as Josh Allen is healthy. Buffalo should easily cover the spread, winning 32-13.
That’s below the 48.5 total only because New England’s offense is struggling so badly. Follow us on social media to stay tuned this NFL season.
