Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid Game Analysis: Final is 1 Game Away
Arsenal are the heavy favorites for the second leg of the Champions League semi-finals. They will play at home in the Emirates Stadium in North London on May 5 against Atlético Madrid.
The first leg ended in a 1-1 draw, so the aggregate is even. Arsenal haven’t reached the final since 2006, while Atlético reached the final more recently, in 2016. However, neither team has won the Final yet. Continue reading to find out which team is ready to take the win on this Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid prediction at PayPerHead.
Arsenal Recent Scores
Arsenal has a stellar record in the Premier League with 73 points, 64 goals scored, and 26 conceded. Their record for the last 10 games is 4 wins, 4 losses and 2 draws. However, they’ve done a little better in their last 5 games, with 2 wins, 2 draws and only 1 loss:
- May 2, Arsenal (W) 3 – 0 Fulham (Premier League)
- Apr 29, Arsenal (D) 1 – 1 Atlético (Champions League)
- Apr 25, Arsenal (W) 1 – 0 Newcastle United (Premier League)
- Apr 19, Arsenal (L) 1 – 2 Manchester City (Premier League)
- Apr 15, Arsenal (D) 0 – 0 Sporting CP (Champions League QF second leg)
- Apr 11, Arsenal (L) 1 – 2 Bournemouth (Premier League)
- Apr 7, Arsenal (W) 1 – 0 Sporting (Champions League)
- Apr 4, Arsenal (L) 1 – 2 Southampton (FA)
- Mar 22, Arsenal (L) 0 – 2 Manchester City (Premier League)
- Mar 17, Arsenal (W) 2 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen (Champions League)
Set the tone. pic.twitter.com/JStWMrWXZy
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) May 4, 2026
Atlético Madrid Recent Scores
Atlético has won 3 of its last 10 games, with 2 draws. But 2 of those wins were in the last 3 games:
- May 2, Atlético (W) 2 – 0 Valencia
- Apr 29, Atlético (D) 1 – 1 Arsenal (Champions League)
- Apr 25, Atlético (W) 3 – 2 Athletic Bilbao (SLL)
- Apr 22, Atlético (L) 2 – 3 Elche (SLL)
- Apr 18, Atlético (D) 2 – 2 Real Sociedad (SCDR)
- Apr 14, Atlético (L) 1 – 2 Barcelona (Champions League)
- Apr 11, Atlético (L) 1 – 2 Sevilla (SLL)
- Apr 8, Atlético (W) 2 – 0 Barcelona (Champions League)
- Apr 4, Atlético (L) 1 – 2 Barcelona (Champions League)
- Mar 22, Atlético (L) 2 – 3 Real Madrid (SLL)
Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid History
These teams have little history, having played 4 times. They’ve ended in a draw twice, and each team has won 1 game.
- Atlético 1 – 1 Arsenal (Apr 29, 2026)
- Arsenal 4 – 0 Atlético (Oct 21, 2025)
- Atlético 1 – 0 Arsenal (May 3, 2018)
- Arsenal 1 – 1 Atlético (April 26, 2018)
Recent history shows that Arsenal is the stronger team, but they were left with a draw in the first leg, so Atlético has shown they can compete.
Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid Prediction: Home vs Away Records
In their last 10 home games, Arsenal has 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. In their last 10 away games, Atlético Madrid has had only 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses – a glaring difference.
Arsenal is also hoping for the return of Odegaard, who missed the 3-0 win over Fulham on Saturday, and Havertz, who hasn’t played for the team since last month due to a muscle issue.
Even with that variable, Arsenal is expected to beat Atlético, but how much they beat Atlético could be decided by their injuries. Our Arsenal vs Atlético prediction is Arsenal 3-1 over Atlético.
