How does Spence’s weight class jump affect the fight?
Errol Spence Jr. returns to the ring against Tim Tszyu on Saturday, July 25 at the Afterpay Arena in Sydney, Australia. The fight starts early in Australia to catch the US fanbase; the main card begins at 9 pm ET, with the main event ring walks around midnight.
It was originally a 158-pound catchweight fight, but has been moved up to 160-pound middleweight. Spence is reportedly the one who asked for the jump. This will be his first fight above welterweight. Continue reading to see which boxer is more prepared in this Spence Jr. vs Tszyu prediction at PayPerHead.
How did Spence perform in his last seven fights?
Spence has had an impressive career right up until his first loss in 2023, which was his last fight. It was an easy win for his opponent, Crawford, which might be why Spence stepped away for an extended period. His last seven fights:
| Date | Opponent | Title | Result |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Terence Crawford | Undisputed Welterweight Title | Loss (TKO) |
| Apr 16, 2022 | Yordenis Ugas | World Welterweight Title | Win (TKO) |
| Dec 5, 2020 | Danny Garcia | World Welterweight Title | Win (Decision) |
| Sep 28, 2019 | Shawn Porter | World Welterweight Title | Win (Decision) |
| Mar 16, 2019 | Mikey Garcia | World Welterweight Title | Win (Decision) |
| Jun 16, 2018 | Carlos Ocampo | World Welterweight Title | Win (TKO) |
| Jan 20, 2018 | Lamont Peterson | World Welterweight Title | Win (TKO) |
How has Tszyu fared since moving to middleweight?
Tszyu has lost three matches, which all came recently while going after the Super Welterweight Title. He’s since moved up to middleweight, where he’s had more success, but Spence will be the biggest name he’s ever fought. His last seven matches:
| Date | Opponent | Title | Result |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Denis Nurja | International Middleweight Title | Win (Decision) |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Anthony Velazquez | Main Event | Win (Decision) |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Sebastian Fundora | World Super Welterweight Title | Loss (TKO) |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Joey Spencer | Inter Continental Super Welterweight Title | Win (TKO) |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Bakhram Murtazaliev | World Super Welterweight Title | Loss (TKO) |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Sebastian Fundora | World Super Welterweight Title | Loss (Dec) |
| Oct 14, 2023 | Brian Mendoza | Interim Super Welterweight Title | Win (Decision) |
How do Spence and Tszyu compare in age, height, and reach?
Tszyu is younger and has had seven fights since Spence last fought, but both are fighting above their weight class in this event.
| Errol Spence Jr | Name | Tim Tszyu |
| 36 | Age | 31 |
| 5 ft 9.5 in | Height | 5 ft 8.5 in |
| 146.5 lbs | Weight | 154 lbs |
| 72 in | Reach | 70.5 in |
| 28 wins, 1 loss | Record | 27 wins, 3 losses |
| 22 (78.6%) | KOs (KO %) | 18 (66.7%) |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
What is the prediction for Spence vs Tszyu in Sydney?
Spence is a slight favorite in this fight, but he hasn’t made it easy for himself:
- He’s been out of the game for almost three years
- He asked to fight in a higher weight class, which he’s never fought in before
- He’s fighting in Australia, where Tszyu has never lost
While Spence has more experience, elite skills, jab and ring IQ, Tszyu is younger, more active lately, and known for high volume and power. His home crowd should help his cause, too.
Both are aggressive fighters, so expect it to be high-paced, with plenty of exchanges. If Spence can get the rust off in the first few rounds, he might win by decision, but Tszyu will come out fast and hard.
Whoever wins this one has a shot at IBF champion Josh Kelly and a big payday. Our Spence Jr. vs Tszyu prediction is a win by decision for Tszyu on his home turf. Remember to follow us on our social media accounts to never miss a big boxing event or news.
