Italian Grand Prix Race Analysis: Antonelli Takes a Hit
The 2026 Italian Grand Prix takes place on Sunday, September 6, 14:00 BST at Monza, just outside of Milan in Northern Italy. Join us at PayPerHead to see which driver and team are the favorites in this Italian Grand Prix prediction.
We’re in the second half of the Formula 1 season, with 10 more races after this one, including one more in Europe. Spain’s Grand Prix takes place next week on Sept 13, before moving to other parts of the world, ending in Abu Dhabi in December.
Kimi Antonelli leads all drivers with 242 points. Unfortunately, his car has reached the limit on the number of power unit components allowed per season.
The Mercedes team calculated this was the best race to take the penalty for that. Which means he starts at the back of the pack in front of his home crowd.
But Mercedes will fit him with an entirely fresh unit: Engine, turbocharger, MGU-H, MGU-K and exhaust.
Formula 1 Recent Races: McLaren Making Strides
The 2026 season so far:
| Date | Country | Winner | Team |
| March 8 | Australia | George Russell | Mercedes |
| March 15 | China | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes |
| March 29 | Japan | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes |
| May 3 | Miami | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes |
| May 24 | Canada | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes |
| June 7 | Monaco | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes |
| June 14 | Barcelona | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari |
| June 28 | Austria | George Russell | Mercedes |
| July 5 | Great Britain | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| July 19 | Belgium | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes |
| July 26 | Hungary | Lando Norris | McLaren |
| August 23 | Netherlands | Lando Norris | McLaren |
Driver standings:
| Position | Driver | Team | Points |
| 1. | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 242 |
| 2. | George Russell | Mercedes | 183 |
| 3. | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 183 |
| 4. | Lando Norris | McLaren | 159 |
| 5. | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 155 |
| 6. | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 112 |
| 7. | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 104 |
Mercedes have the top two drivers of the season, but with Antonelli’s penalty, Russell or Hamilton have a chance to catch him.
Italian Grand Prix Weather Conditions: Very Hot
The three days of the racing weekend will see very hot, rain-free weather, peaking at 33 degrees on Friday and Sunday. The hottest day is forecast for Saturday’s qualifying day when temperatures can reach 34.
Italian Grand Prix History: Fastest Track
Max Verstappen won the Italian Grand Prix in 2025, but Lando Norris came in second. Norris has won the last two Grand Prix (Hungary and Netherlands) and could make this his third in a row.
Italy has been part of Formula 1 since its inception in 1950. The track is 5.793 kilometers long and features 53 laps. It’s the fastest track on the F1 calendar, with cars averaging 260 km/h per lap.
The past five winners:
| Year | Driver | Team |
| 2025 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2024 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull RBPT |
| 2021 | Daniel Ricciardo | McLaren-Mercedes |
Italian Grand Prix Prediction: Manage the Heat
With the 20-year-old Antonelli starting from the back, he won’t be able to make the top three even on this fast track, but his team calculated that Monza will give him the best chance of winning. It has long straights and the most overtaking opportunities.
The high temperatures and dry track will make tire management and cooling paramount.
Our Italian Grand Prix prediction is a third win for Lando Norris and McLaren, with George Russell second and Lewis Hamilton third. The question is, will Antonelli gain any points in this race? Remember that you can follow us on our social media accounts to stay tuned for this Formula 1 season.
