Power of US Presidential Odds Affect Wall Street | PayPerHead®
Skip to main content
US Presidential odds

Power of US Presidential Odds Affect Wall Street

US Presidential odds betting players have driven down Donald Trump’s chances at a repeat. Wall Street has finally taken notice.

The 2020 US Presidential Election is well underway, therefore the odds for bettors are now available as well. Although the actual date of the election is Tuesday, November 3, absentee ballots have shipped. Soon, election committees in the various states will start counting returned votes. By November 3, either Democrat Joe Biden or Republican Donald Trump will have a slight edge before the rest of the United States’ voting-age population heads to the polls.

Right now, based on odds, Joe Biden should have that edge. Keeping the edge doesn’t trend in Biden’s favor, though. Odds on President Trump moved considerably after the Republican National Convention. The odds shift was so dramatic that Wall Street has finally taken the cues.  

The US Presidential Election is an essential event to a bookie’s bottom line. Keep reading to understand why Wall Street follows US Presidential Election betting and how pph sportsbook agents can drive interest with their odds on the most significant event in politics.

With US Presidential Election, Wall Street follows odds makers

Main Street and Wall Street go hand-in-hand. Sometimes, Main Street follows Wall Street. At other times, it’s the other way around. When it comes to the 2020 Presidential Election, there’s no doubt who is following who.

Sportsbooks are in the Main Street category. Right now, books are telling us that current President Donald J. Trump has a real shot of repeating his 2016 victory. We can look at numerous reasons why. 

Unrest in major US cities, the fact that Trump supporters may be duping the polls, or how Biden didn’t get much of a bump after the Democratic Convention are legitimate reasons why the current President’s odds have dived. History also plays a part.

In 2016, major US sports bettors dumped huge dollars on Trump to beat the favorite, Hillary Clinton. Public polling never coincided with those anonymous US bettors, which explains how Hillary maintained a healthy lead in the polls. Make no mistake, though, lines makers changed the odds on Trump to take the White House.

This year, history appears to be repeating itself. Before the conventions, Trump was a +110 underdog. Biden offered -160. After the conventions, Biden’s odds have gone to -125. Trump’s odds are at -105.

It’s a matter of time before bookmakers either flip the odds and make Trump a favorite or change Donald’s and Joe’s odds to even money

Read any “how to become a bookie” guide, and you’ll understand how huge of a change it is to go from a +110 choice to a -105 choice. Biden saw an even more pronounced move.

Joe went from -160 to -125. That’s a 35-point move. It takes a ton of money, or foresight, for a bookmaker to move a line that much. It’s probably money and foresight that caused bookies to change the US Presidential odds so dramatically.

Money in the sense that the same significant players who backed Trump with huge bets in 2016 made the same huge wagers on the @realDonaldTrump after the Republican Convention. Foresight, in the sense that leading up to voting day 2016, Trump remained around a seven percentage point underdog.

Right now, Trump is around a seven percentage point dog, just like he was in 2016. Donald beat Hillary as an election odds dog even though the polls said he wouldn’t.

In early September, Wall Street took notice

Even though online sportsbooks and pay per head agents, sportsbook operators that use bookie software, changed odds shortly after the Republican National Convention, it took Wall Street another week to catch up. Until the beginning of September, Wall Street had continued to bake in a Biden victory.

On August 31, researcher Marko Kolanovic stated that JP Morgan believes odds “momentum on Trump will continue”. Kolanovic also stressed that most investors are “positioned for a Biden” win.

A few days after Kolanovic’s warning, a tech sell-off happened on Wall Street. The sell-off lasted for three trading sessions. Technology stocks have since rebounded, but the lesson is obvious. Trump is the candidate that has stated he’d consider “breaking up” tech giants like Amazon. A Trump win could be “bad” for tech giants.

Wall Street follows odds on the US Presidential election. For per head agents, sticking to current odds makes the most sense. There’s no reason to change presidential odds on their own. Professional political handicappers and experienced US Presidential odds players have proven that they’re more right than either political polls or Wall Street.

Related News

NFL Thanksgiving Thursday Odds

NFL Thanksgiving Thursday Odds: How Sportsbooks Can Bank Serious Cash

Thanksgiving and NFL Football are synonymous. You can’t have one without the other. Both the...

dos and donts of being a bookie

Dos and Don’t of Being a Bookie

Being a bookie is a quick process, but bookie agents must prepare for pitfalls.  Here...

bookie money management per head concept

Money Management for Successful Bookie

If you want to be a successful bookie, it's critical to understand proper money management...