In the first month of the NFL Regular Season, eight franchises showed they could hurt your pay per head sportsbook. Check out a list of October NFL against the spread overlay teams and sportsbook software advice on handling action on those squads.
The 2021-2022 NFL Regular Season is underway. Right now, parity reigns as eight teams are dominating against the spread.
Luckily, players also call bookie agents every week backing teams that have fumbled ATS. But that’s just it. In against the spread wagering, players can choose to lay the points, or back favorites, or take the points, or back underdogs.
If you’re a regular PayPerHead blog reader, you know how to use your layoff account to ensure profit. You also understand that you must set NFL parlay betting limits and use the Agent Payment Solution to make payouts and collect right after games.
If you’re new to our blogs, don’t worry. We explain why you should use our bookmaker software in the last section.
Continue reading about the teams players are backing to cover and the likely October NFL overlays for the month.
October’s NFL Against the Spread Overlay Teams
NFC Teams Your Players Will Back
After four games, the Cowboys are a perfect 4-0 against the spread. Dallas showed they’re a betting darling in their first matchup, almost pulling off an upset against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a +10 underdog.
Since losing 31-29 to Tampa, Dallas has rolled ATS, beating the Chargers outright in their second game as a +3 dog and then covering against the Eagles and the Panthers as a favorite. Dallas’ next three games are against the Giants, Patriots, and Vikings.
Heading into their NFL Week 5 contest versus the rival San Francisco 49ers, the Arizona Cardinals are 3-1 against the spread. Zona failed to cover versus Minnesota in their second game as a -4 chalk.
But the Cards won the game. Arizona is the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL. Should they beat the 49ers on October 10, they’d enter NFL Week 6 with a 5-0 record.
Zona ranks first in yards per. The Desert Birds average 440.5 yards each game. Not only that, but quarterback Kyler Murray has become the favorite to win the NFL MVP.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have rolled since an inexplicable 3-38 loss to the New Orleans Saints in the first week. The Pack covered a formidable -11.5 spread against the Lions, upset San Francisco on the road as a dog, and covered a -6.5 spread versus the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lambeau in week four.
Green Bay has a cakewalk of a schedule. Rodgers and his mates face the Bengals, the Bears, and the WFT, before a massive match versus Murray and the Cardinals on October 28.
Zona could end up the overlay in that game. Bookie software agents may have to use their layoff account.
In their fourth game, like an undefeated claimer in your racebook going up in class, the Carolina Panthers fell big-time versus a more talented team.
The Cowboys pummeled Carolina 36-28, sending the Panthers to 3-1 against the spread. Carolina has a sneaky demanding schedule this month.
Philadelphia, Minnesota, the New York Giants, and Atlanta aren’t walkovers. If one of your pro players dumps on a Panther opponent to cover, consider it an overlay bet and cut risk with your layoff account.
NFC Teams Your Players Will Go Against
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 1-3 against the spread. Last season, injuries derailed the 49ers season.
History may be repeating itself. The 49ers lost starting linebacker Dre Greenlaw until November. Starting cornerback Jason Verrett is out for the season, and both QB Jimmy Garoppolo and Trent Williams, one of the best left tackles in the NFL, are banged up.
No doubt, your players will go against the Philadelphia Eagles to cover the spread. But before using your layoff account, realize that Philadelphia has one of the best offensive lines in football when everyone’s healthy.
The key is to keep an eye on left tackle Jordan Mailata’s status. If Mailata plays, Philadelphia can cover spreads as they did in NFL Week 1 when they trashed Atlanta 32-6.
Washington Football Team
It’s easy to understand why the Washington Football Team is 1-3 against the spread. In 2020, the WFT used a talented front seven to stifle running backs and terrorize quarterbacks.
This season, the front seven has allowed truck-sized holes and freeway wide passing lanes. The WFT allows opponents to amass 417.5 yards per game. Opponents average over 30 points each contest versus D.C.
Most definitely consider using your layoff account because D.C. should blow games left and right.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pro NFL handicappers love to take the points versus the previous season’s Super Bowl winner. The reason is that the public consistently overbets Super Bowl teams.
When that Super Bowl team starts Tom Brady, forget it. The Bucs covered against Atlanta in NFL Week 2, but it took a couple of pick sixes to do it.
The schedule implies the Buccaneers may not cover a single game in October because, like always, the public will pound them against the spread.
The ATL is a bad covering team. But things could be looking up. The Falcons should have beaten the WFT in their week four game.
But the ATL allows more points per game than any other team in the league. October is too early to shelve the layoff account on Atlanta bets to cover.
AFC Teams Your Players Will Back
The Broncos had become a covering machine until the 7-23 loss to Baltimore in the fourth week. October could be a tough month for the Colorado Ponies because Denver suffered injuries to nine starters in the loss to the Ravens.
No injury is as crucial as Teddy Bridgewater’s concussion. If Teddy B. can’t play, Denver may not cover again until their QB1 is back on the field.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers’ lone non-cover happened in a game versus the NFC’s best-covering team, the Dallas Cowboys. The Chargers lean on a great defense and a competent quarterback.
Justin Herbert is playing great this season. If Herbert continues to shine, the Bolts will continue to cover games.
Don’t overthink LAC contests. Use your layoff account when required.
Cleveland averages 177 yards per game. By far, that ranks first in the NFL.
Many pro football handicappers believe the better rushing team is worth at least 3 points. So far, oddsmakers haven’t adjusted.
The Browns’ only non-cover so far happened in NFL Week 2 versus the Houston Texans as a 13.5 road chalk. Cleveland had a 10-point lead late. So it makes sense why the Browns didn’t push for another score.
In their first game, the Bills fell to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since then, Buffalo has rolled.
Heading into Buffalo’s massive NFL Sunday Night Football matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5, the Bills have won three straight. Not a single one of the three victories was close.
The Bills, right now, are the best team in the NFL. Eventually, oddsmakers will adjust spread lines, which means there’s a chance Buffalo doesn’t become an October NFL against the spread overlay.
AFC Teams Your Players Will Go Against
Kansas City Chiefs
In 2020, KC went 7-9 against the spread. So far this season, the Chiefs are 1-3 ATS.
Like the Buccaneers, the public loves to back Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City to cover spreads. More often than not, that has led the Chiefs to offer underlay odds, which means you want your players backing KC to cover.
Since the 23-16 first week upset victory over Buffalo, the Steelers have become one of the worst covering teams in the league. Since their first game, Pittsburgh has gone 0-3 ATS, falling to Las Vegas, Cincinnati, and Green Bay.
Before Urban Meyer coached his fifth NFL game, he’s already on the hot seat. Trevor Lawrence has a ton of talent.
So if owner Shad Kahn does intend on firing Meyer, he should do so right away. Who knows what damage Meyer can cause to Lawrence’s development as a pro if the former Ohio State Buckeyes coach continues to be a distraction?
From a betting point-of-view, pro and casual NFL bettors alike will go against the Jags until they prove they can cover with consistency.
New York Jets
The Jets are a perennial play against. This season is no different.
The New York Jets average 11.8 points per, ranking dead last in the league. Quarterback Zach Wilson is having a heck of a time adjusting to the National Football League.
Wilson should be a good quarterback. But in his rookie year, his struggles will continue no matter what the Jets do.
So, yes, you must use your layoff account to mitigate potential losses on New York Jets’ spread bets.
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