On Thursday, the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos kick off what promises to be a fantastic week of NFL football. The Broncos and Colts have underperformed this season, but both continue to attract action in pay per head books. See below for a recap of week 4 price per head action and a look at NFL Week 5.
2022 NFL Week 4 Bookie Betting Recap
Favorites underperformed, winning 7-of-16 total games. When favorites underperform, pay per head agents must be ultra-careful.
Underdogs can hurt your sportsbook more than favorites. Dogs that won straight up, meaning they didn’t just win against the spread but also on the money line last week, include Pittsburgh falling to the New York Jets, San Francisco beating the Rams, the Cardinals taking down the Panthers, and the Detroit Lions losing at home in a 48-45 shootout versus the Seattle Seahawks.
None of the ML upsets were huge. But they show the risk bookie website owners like us take when we don’t set money line betting limits.
Keep reading for a run down of this week’s NFL action.
2022 NFL Week 5 Schedule
When: Thursday, October 6 – Monday, October 10
Bookmaker Software Tips for NFL Week 5
Thursday Night Football – October 6
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos -3
Both these teams will be searching for a win in NFL Week 5. The Titans beat Indianapolis and Denver struggled in a loss to the rival Las Vegas Raiders.
Indy might have the slight edge because although the Colts lost, quarterback Matt Ryan went off when completing 27-of-37 for 356 yards. Matty Ice also threw a pair of TDs.
Consider: Max limits on the Colts’ ML is a must. Both of these teams are 1-3 against the spread. Use your layoff account no matter where the action lands.
Sunday, October 9
New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers -7.5
The Packers struggled versus a New England Patriots squad down to their third-string quarterback. No doubt, Green Bay has been aided by a soft early schedule.
The Giants may have to play a third-string QB, which should be interesting because Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor are the only two signal-callers on the depth chart.
Consider: It’s tough to back Green Bay against the spread. Some action, no doubt, will land on the Giants. The layoff account may be required and set money line limits for sure because this is the week’s London game, which means anything can happen.
Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Cleveland Browns
The Bolts got back on track with an excellent victory over the Houston Texans. Atlanta beat Cleveland.
Cleveland hopes to maintain until Deshaun Watson can get on the field. NFL handicappers will wait to see if Myles Garrett will play. If he does, money will land on the Browns to win this straight up.
Consider: The Chargers looked good when scoring 34 points against the terrible Houston Texans, but the defense yielded 24. This game should attract action on both sides and may not require much pay per head sportsbook management.
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots -2.5
Detroit’s defense folded versus one of the worst offenses in the league, Seattle’s. Allowing 48 points is close to unforgivable.
The Patriots gave it their all against the Green Bay Packers. Coaching pedigree accounts for the spread line in this one because the Pats are down to their third-string QB.
Consider: Let the money determine the bookmaker software moves you make. PPH sports bookies shouldn’t make conclusions in a game where neither team appears to have much of an edge.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8
Atlanta won their second game of the season, which means the Falcons and Buccaneers lead the NFC South division with 2-2 records.
Tampa’s defense had no answer for Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense. The Chiefs dropped 41 points onto the Bucs.
Consider: The ATL has a decent offense. Also, the Falcons are 4-0 against the spread. Use your layoff account if required and set max limits on Atlanta’s money line.
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints -5.5
Even though they lost to the Minnesota Vikings in the league’s first game in London this season, the Saints showed more on offense than they had in their previous four contests.
New Orleans will start Andy Dalton, which means the offense could roll versus a Seahawks’ D that yielded 45 to the Lions in week 5.
Consider: Some players will view Saints versus Seahawks as NFL Week 5’s “give me” game. A few of your customers will see the line and expect New Orleans to crush Seattle. Others will see the line and expect the Seahawks to cover. Wait for the money to land before making any pay per head bookie moves.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars -7
Houston played well versus a strong team in the Los Angeles Chargers. But the Texans have begun to play sloppy football overall, which is a bad sign considering they face one of the top defenses in the league.
Jacksonville failed by half a point in an 8-point road loss to Philadelphia. The Jaguars played Philly tougher than any team since the Eagles’ week 1 victory over the Lions.
Consider: There’s a chance the Jagaurs roll in this contest. Houston did not look good when giving up 34 points to the Bolts. Use the layoff account if required.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills -13.5
Buffalo scored 23 points versus a terrible defense in the 23-20 win against the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills haven’t impressed in their last couple of games but remain the chalk to win Super Bowl 57.
The Steelers will make a quarterback change. Mike Tomlin is rolling the dice with Pittsburgh Panthers rookie Kyle Pickett. The Bills D could feast on Pickett but laying what should be -14 at kickoff will be asking too much.
Consider: Pros will take the points. Tomlin coached teams seldom lose by more than 10. Also, Pickett will undoubtedly help the Steelers stay within a loud shout. See where the money lands before making any moves.
Miami Dolphins -3 at New York Jets
The Jets are 2-2 this season. The Dolphins lost their first game of 2022 in the Tua head injury fiasco last Thursday night.
Miami played well until the second half when the defense folded against Joe Burrow and the Bengals. The Fins implosion had to do with Tagovailoa’s injury and Cincinnati finally putting everything together.
Consider: Miami should bounce back with a big win and cover. Teddy Bridgewater is more than capable of leading the team. Expect plenty of action on the Dolphins. Set max limits on the Jets’ money line, just in case.
Tennessee Titans -2.5 at Washington Commanders
Washington is a bad football team. The Commanders lost their third straight.
D.C. should probably be 0-4 because the Jags had the Commanders on the ropes in NFL Week 1. Tennessee is on a 2-game winning streak. So the Titans have gotten things together.
Consider: Tennessee will be the pick of the week for some players. PPH services agents may have to use their layoff account on Titans’ action.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings -7
The Vikings almost blew a lead versus the Saints in London in week 4. But New Orleans kicker Will Lutz missed his second of a couple of 61-yard field goal attempts.
Lutz made the first field goal. He missed the second.
The Bears played awful in a 20-12 loss to the Giants. The loss could spark a Chicago losing streak for both SU and ATS bets.
Consider: For many players, Minnesota is a lock. Expect the Vikings to get it done with no problem. But to be safe, setting max limits on the Bears’ ML is wise.
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 at Carolina Panthers
San Francisco finally played a great football game. The 49ers trounced the rival Los Angeles Rams.
Carolina blew a game against the Arizona Cardinals. The loss is significant because the Panthers had beaten Zona in 3 straight seasons.
Consider: The free betting software line has fallen from San Francisco -4 to SF -6.5. The line move is significant. Don’t hesitate to use the layoff account.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams -4.5
Los Angeles didn’t play well versus the rival 49ers. Dallas played great when trouncing the Washington Commanders 25-10.
The Cowboys are 3-1 while the Rams are 2-2. Dallas will attract plenty of action.
Consider: The Boys have already attracted a ton of action. Dallas has gone from a +6.5 underdog to a +4.5 play. Expect this to be one of your must-use layoff account games.
Philadelphia Eagles -5 at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona looked better in the second half versus Carolina than they had all season. The Valley hosts a Philadelphia team that is rolling.
But although the Eagles have dominated, they head to the desert after beating the Jaguars and former head coach Doug Pederson.
Consider: Philadelphia could bounce, which makes Zona one of the top money line upset plays in NFL Week 5. If the Cardinals don’t make mistakes, they can win straight up. Money line limits are a must.
NFL Sunday Night Football: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens -3.5
Baltimore versus Cincinnati projects as the week’s most competitive contest. The Ravens had a shot to go up by 3 points over the Buffalo Bills.
But Lamar threw a pick. Cincinnati sent Tua to the hospital with a legal but scary tackle. Then the Bengals romped over the Dolphins.
Consider: The Bengals may have gotten it together. So Cincinnati’s money line should be hot. Use your best bookie software tools to manage the action on the Bengals’ ML.
Monday Night Football – October 10
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs -6.5
Raiders versus Chiefs is one of the NFL’s top rivalry games. Also, because this happens on Monday night, you and every other betting program agent should see a lot of action fall onto your sportsbook.
Consider: The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread in the last six games versus the rival Raiders. KC will attract a ton of action in this game. The Chiefs will attract more action the longer it stays under 7 points.
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