To help online bookie agents get ready for a monster football season, we offer info on who we believe players could target with their 2021 NFC betting dollars.
The building block to become a successful NFL bookmaking agent is to understand that most of your players follow prominent trends and target specific teams. We already focused on AFC teams. Next, we take a look at National Football Conference teams.
Two quick 2021 NFC Betting facts:
- NFL bettors primarily focus on against the spread (ATS) wagers.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have Super Bowl momentum and should attract a ton of attention in your PPH sportsbook.
In addition to the Bucs, keep an eye on the below National Football Conference teams.
Los Angeles Rams – Bettor Confidence in Stafford Growing
Word out of Vegas is that quarterback Matthew Stafford has taken more MVP action than Patrick Mahomes. If true, it’s an easy indicator bettors have the Los Angeles Rams on their radar.
In Sin City, as of August 19, Stafford had attracted 10 percent of the MVP tickets. Bettors could attack Rams odds and futures if the former Detroit Lions’ number one pick proves he deserves the preseason praise. In 2020, four of the top against the spread teams, Buffalo, Baltimore, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay, started a former most valuable player or MVP runner-up under center.
The Rams went 10-8 ATS in 2020 despite Jared Goff’s mediocre 20-touchdown and 13-interception season. Stafford shows a 5,000 plus yards season on his resume, seven 4,000 plus yards seasons, and eight seasons where he threw more than 20 touchdowns.
New Orleans Saints – Winston-Led Aerial Attack Could Excite Bettors
In 2019, Jameis Winston led the NFL in passing yards. Before Sean Payton said Winston is this season’s starter, Vegas bettors were bullish on Winston’s chances to lead the NFL in passing yards. Now that he’s officially No. 1 on the depth chart, expect players’ confidence in the Saints’ QB1 and New Orleans to cover spread to grow.
According to ESPN Next Gen Stats, Winston averaged 11 air yards per attempt this preseason. Drew Brees’ intended air yards per attempt in 2020 was 6.1 – near the league’s bottom.
Air stats alone should build interest on a Saints team hovering in the top 10 to win Super Bowl LVI. Successful bookies ask, will an increase in handle on the Saints against the spread hurt my bottom line?
There are other New Orleans quarterback stats to consider. In 2020, Brees averaged just 245 passing yards in 12 starts. However, because the future hall of famer threw just 6 interceptions, the Saints went 10-8 ATS and 13-5 straight up.
Meanwhile, Winston threw for over 5,000 yards in 2019 with Tampa Bay, but he also threw 30 interceptions. Tampa finished 5-9-2 ATS.
If head Payton helps Winston cut his INTs in half, bookies could see the Saints perform well against their 22nd-ranked schedule opponents both on the moneyline and against the spread.
Green Bay Packers – Rogers is Ready
The Packers, boasting the reigning MVP, went 11-7 ATS last year and posted the best overall record in the NFL. Sports betting players may only target the Buccaneers, who Green Bay lost to in the 2020 NFC Championship, more than the Packers.
Quarterback Aaron Rogers is back, and word out of camp is he’s still slinging darts. It’s hard to see Green Bay not again posting at least an 11-7 ATS record.
Green Bay should play with an amplified sense of urgency. 2021 should be Rodgers’ last season in Green Bay. The cliché of “Super Bowl or bust” is reality.
Keep Packers’ odds and action top of mind every week this season. Any Green Bay momentum straight up and against the spread will encourage players to call bookie agents looking for more advantageous lines.
Washington Football Team – A Surprising Top 3 NFC Wager
If you provide free betting software to pro players, keep an eye on the Washington Football Team. In 2020, one could pair Washington’s generic name with their generic offense, but their 10-7 ATS record sat behind only Green Bay and Tampa Bay in the NFC.
Washington became a solid bet by dominating on the defensive side of the ball. The WFT ranked second in total yards and fourth in points against when allowing 20.6 per. D.C. went 5-1 against the spread when holding opponents to 21 points or less.
Pro Football Focus ranks the defensive line second in the league in 2021. All four starting D-linemen are former first-round picks. Because all four are also in their prime, Washington can again dominate in the trenches.
The problem, again, could be on offense. It’s hard to envision Washington improving their 20.9-points per game average after scoring just two field goals in three preseason games.
Oddsmaking experts know defense doesn’t attract betting action. In the oddsmakers’ attempt to attract bets on Washington, linemakers could set overlay odds.
San Francisco 49ers – Bettors Will Forget 2020
Players are bullish on San Francisco. The 49ers are the favorite to win the NFC West, in the top five to win the NFC Championship, and a top 10 choice to win the Super Bowl.
In 2020, the San Francisco 49ers went 7-9 ATS after QB Jimmy Garoppolo played six games and star tight end George Kittle played eight. 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa played two games.
All three are one-hundred percent healthy heading into the 2021 season.
Garoppolo won’t excite fans because he posts conservative stats. San Fran went 11-7-1 ATS in 2019 when the former New England Patriot started all 16 games.
Bosa could immediately impact NFC bet spreads if he can recreate his 2019 form. In 2020, San Fran went 6-2 ATS when they held opponents below their 24.4-points against average.
The 49ers face the Detroit Lions Week 1 and the Philadelphia Eagles Week 2. In Reddit sportsbooks, the buzz on the 49ers has been deafening. The buzz should continue at least into NFL Week 3.
Other Potential NFC Betting Targets
New York Giants
Did you know the 6-10 SU Giants went 9-7 ATS? The Giants struggled last season because quarterback Daniel Jones regressed and star running back Saquon Barkley missed almost the entire season with a torn ACL.
New York could surprise against the spread again. The Giants play the 25th ranked schedule, and Barkley should be ready to return to his previous all-pro form.
On paper, the Cardinals have all the pieces required for an NFC Championship run.
Young, mobile signal-caller Kyler Murray enters his third year. All-pro wide receiver Deandre Hopkins returns, and Zona signed former pro bowl receiver A.J. Green. The Cardinals also brought in RB James Conner and signed future hall of fame player J.J. Watt to terrorize quarterbacks.
The Panthers went 9-7 ATS in 2020 despite their best player, running back Christian McCaffrey, on the field for just three games. Replacing QB Teddy Bridgewater with 2018 No. 3 overall pick Sam Darnold could make or break the Panthers’ NFC betting performance against the spread versus opponents like the Saints and Buccaneers.
As long as Russell Wilson is under center, the Seahawks will attract action. Under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, Seattle should average more points, leading to a Seahawk improvement upon their 2020 8-9 record against the spread. Waldron comes from the Los Angeles Rams. LAR coordinators have been a hot commodity since Sean McVay became the Rams’ head coach.
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