Skip to main content
Bookie Market Analyzation

Bookie Market Analyzation: How to Manage NFL Underdog Wins Before Kickoff

New college football and NFL seasons kicked off more than two weeks ago. Pay per head agents will tell you that most of their revenue and profit comes from football betting. Most football betting revolves around the NFL. What happens when line changes affect a bookie market? See below for everything agents must know about their bookie market and NFL line changes.  

On September 8, the Buffalo Bills kicked off the 2022-2023 NFL Season with a surprising 31-10 win over the Los Angeles Rams. Buffalo winning didn’t surprise. What surprised is the final score. 

The bookie betting line opened at Bills -2.5. The line shifted at one point, making the defending champion Rams a -1 favorite. 

A week before kickoff, the line changed again so that the Bills were again the -2.5 chalk. What gives? Why would a betting line change so much in a single game?

Experienced pay per head sportsbook agents will tell you their bookie software changes ATS lines per bookie market lines. A bookie market oddsmaker takes cues from other oddsmakers.

First, all oddsmakers are the same, meaning there are varying degrees of sportsbook software.

A pay per head agent doesn’t create bookie market odds. But when those odds change, it can affect pay per head agent’s book. 

It can affect it big time, so all agents should understand how line changes can work against an agent and how agent management can prevent line changes from disrupting their organizations. 

Bookie Market AnalyzationAgent Management: What is a Bookiemarket?

Unlike a fantasy sportsbook, a bookiemarket involves actual bets on sports events. Bookiemarket operators create spread lines, over/under lines, and other propositions often involving sports games.

Football, basketball, and baseball are the primary sports. But other sports can be involved. Oddsmakers also set lines for events like the Oscars or the U.S. Presidential Election. 

A bookiemarket is where the odds for all events and sports exist. We can also call a bookiemarket the bookie website, or betting program, for a specific sportsbook company.

NFL Bookiemarket Week 1 Upsets

NFL upset plays represent the most risk to your sportsbook. Because at the time of this writing, NFL Week 2 has yet to happen, let’s study NFL upsets in week 1 and see how those could have affected your book. 

We’ll then decide the pre-kickoff action online bookie software agents could have taken to prevent losses.

San Francisco 49ers -6.5 at Chicago Bears

Result: San Francisco 10 – Chicago 19

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals -7.5

Result: Pittsburgh 23 – Chicago 20

New Orleans Saints -5.5 at Atlanta Falcons 

Result: New Orleans 27 – Atlanta 26

Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 at Detroit Lions 

Result: Philadelphia 38 – Detroit 35

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers -2.5

Result: Cleveland 26 – Carolina 24

Indianapolis Colts -7.5 at Houston Texans 

Result: Indianapolis 20 – Houston 20

New York Giants at Tennessee Titans -6.5

Result: NYG 21 – Tennessee 20

Denver Broncos -5.5 at Seattle Seahawks 

Result: Denver 16 – Seattle 17

Half of the games in NFL Week 1 ended with the dog winning straight up or against the spread. Running a profitable sportsbook isn’t sustainable when sportsbook software agents must pay half their fees.

Money line victories will destroy your book. To prevent money line wins from eating into profits, bookie software agents must set max limits on every team in every game.

The best of the best NFL handicappers in the world couldn’t have predicted every first week upset. Why would PPH services agents believe they could? 

The good news is that agents who sign up with us have access to tools they can use to manage all NFL upset victories before kickoff.

The following process explains how real bookie agents can manage potential upset victories. Check out the process and change steps based on your knowledge. 

Step 1 – Set max limits on all NFL money line options

Pro NFL handicappers, and even casual NFL bettors, understand they can’t throw down as much money as they’d like on betting market money lines.

Step 2 – Set up BetAlerts for high rollers

Use reports to find out high roller tendencies. If a high-rolling player loves to back the Broncos ATS, set up a bet alert on Denver games.

Step 3 – Once you receive an alert, make a decision

You can decide to either cut risk by using your layoff account or cancel the bet with the Delete Bet tool.

NFL Week 3 Games – The Process in Action

NFL Week 3 odds are out. So, although, at the time of this writing, only one game in NFL Week 1 has played, we thought it a good idea to show the process in action. 

Check out four NFL contests in week 3. We added their opening line spreads and set up a scenario for each.

New Orleans Saints -2.5 at Carolina Panthers

Scenario: Your player loves to pound the Saints on the road versus their NFC South opponents. You know Player John will dump at least $500 on the Saints to cover the overlay spread. 

How the scenario could play out – You set a bet alert but are surprised Player John didn’t dump $500 like he usually does. Instead, he beat $1,000. 

First, you delete the bet. Second, you call Player John and tell him that the limit on straight bets is $500. 

Buffalo Bills -4.5 at Miami Dolphins

Scenario: The Dolphins upset the Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 2, which means your Miami players will be all over the Fins’ money line in this game. 

How you handle potential money line bets could determine whether your sportsbook turns a profit in week 3. 

How the scenario could play out – You get ahead of this potential disaster by setting max limits on both money lines. Then, you set up bet alerts on the game, and lastly, you set parlay limits to 3 games total. 

Los Angeles Rams -4.5 at Arizona Cardinals

Scenario: After a couple of weeks, the Arizona Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the league. The Rams haven’t played much better than the Cardinals.

But based on previous gambling action, you know your players by far prefer the Rams over the Cards. However, you don’t see much action on the game.

How the scenario could play out – In this scenario, you could take the extra step of marketing Rams versus Cardinals. Or you could use the line mover to change the odds on the Rams, making it more attractive to bet on the Rams.

No matter what you do, set max limits on both money lines. The process still applies even though you may not receive as much action on a game as you thought. 

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos -2.5

Scenario: NFL Week 3’s Sunday night game pits the 49ers versus the Broncos. San Francisco heads to Denver the slight underdog because players aren’t convinced SF’s week 2 bounce back victory over the Seahawks was legit.

Denver dominated the Texans in week 2 but beating Houston doesn’t move the needle. You’re confident you won’t have to use your layoff account. You have considered promoting the Sunday night game, though. 

How the scenario could play out –Knowing you can make a lot of money on the Sunday night NFL game, you run a live betting contest. The player that wins the most live bets scores $200 in free plays. 

Sounds great until you realize you could lose a lot of money on live betting options. So before telling players about your contest, you set betting limits on live plays.

Bookie Market AnalyzationTransfer to PayPerHead and get up to 3 months cashback

There’s still time to take advantage of our latest promotion. Transfer your sportsbook to PayPerHead, and we’ll give you up to 3 months cashback.

Just give us a call, and we’ll handle the entire transferring process. The offer won’t last forever. So make sure to join PayPerHead soon.

Also, once you do, you can participate in the industry’s best referral program. We’ll pay you up to 17% of your friends’ deposits for up to a year. 

You pay less the more players you have. Call us at 800-605-4767, chat with a sales rep, or sign-up today.

Related News

Studying Sports Betting Models Will Help Bookies Manage Players

Studying Sports Betting Models Will Help Bookies Manage Players

Many players use Sports Betting Models to help them improve their odds of winning sports...

NFL Betting on Week 10 and The Masters this Weekend

NFL Betting on Week 10 and The Masters this Weekend

Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, and the best golfers in the world head to...

2022 NFL Draft Preview

2022 NFL Draft Preview

From April 28 through April 30 all 32 teams in the NFL will look to...